The Green Investor Update – April 19, 2010

On April 19, 2010, in Market Trends, TGI Updates, by Andreas Schreyer
0

In this update:

  • The bull market is alive and well
  • Global competition heats up
  • Venture capital triples green investments
  • The Green Portfolio update and recommendations

The bull market is alive and well
The resumption of the rally in stocks we chronicled last month continued in full force since then. All major U.S. stock market indexes have broken out and set new bull market highs. Some, like the Dow Jones Transportation Average, are plotting ballistic charts. Pretty much all indicators are flashing bright green, with buy signals across the board. The only red flags come from the overbought conditions appearing in some of the markets, but we know from experience that these can last longer than what seems reasonable or logical.

As can be expected as we climb the wall of worry, there have been widespread concerns over many issues influencing the economy, from exploding deficits to a job-less recovery. Still, these concerns have been largely trumped by fresh evidence that the recovery is real, that it is global, and that it is accelerating.

A high probability indicator of what’s in store for the U.S. stock market comes from the Asian and emerging markets which have been leading the recovery and the stock market rally so far. They have not been setting new highs lately. After setting bull market highs last fall, they have been taking a breather with some of the more volatile markets experiencing substantial corrections.

China, for example, was down nearly 20% before starting its rebound rise. It has not yet reached the highs set in November 2009, but when these levels are breached, there is a lot of upside potential. The volatility in key emerging markets is likely to continue and even increase, but for those with a strong stomach, long-term charts continue to look extremely bullish. And that goes for key green companies that serve and benefit from these exploding needs.

Global competition heats up
As energy market numbers for 2009 start to solidify, there is an overwhelming sense of shift. It is both visible in the size and growth of the renewable energy markets themselves, but also from a supply-side perspective. The leadership in many clean energy technologies has been slowly but surely shifting from incumbent, American or European manufacturers, to Chinese, Korean or Indian stalwarts.

Most of the news is coming from developed nations cutting subsidies for renewable energy, such as in Germany, France and Spain. Energy policy is currently not at the top of the U.S. government agenda, as health care reform has consumed one and a half years, and financial reform now occupies center stage. In the meantime, emerging economies from Brazil to Singapore and China are making major investments in renewable energy. Just last week, China’s Development Bank announced plans to loan almost $12 billion to two solar manufacturers, Suntech Power (STP) and our preferred solar PV play Trina Solar (TSL). The industry widely views such loans by the Government bank as a direct subsidy as they are not expected to be paid back.

The rise of China and emerging markets is one of our major investment themes as we believe that geographic portfolio diversification is more than a risk management technique, but the likely source of much of our investment profits for years to come.

Venture capital triples green investments
One more indication that the worst of the recession is behind us comes courtesy of the venture capital industry which has been a reliable recovery indicator. Newly released data shows venture capital investments rose 38% in the first quarter of 2010 over the same quarter a year ago. More significantly, investments in clean technology companies more than tripled to $773 million. The green sector is still smaller than biotechnology, but it has been growing the most.

Private investment increases frequently foreshadow the resurgence of merger and acquisition activity. We look forward to the M&A action to heat up as The Green Portfolio features a number of attractive acquisition targets.

The Green Portfolio update and recommendations

Our portfolio of clean and renewable energy companies has resumed its march higher, but at a slightly more timid clip than the broad markets. Our positions gained an average of 2.83% since our last update, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indexes rose 2.82% and 4.34% respectively. Our green market proxy, the PowerShares Global Clean Energy fund (PBD) which tracks the WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation index, was up a scant 1.14% during the month.

Right on cue after having been bashed and downgraded by various analysts and pundits, the solar photovoltaic sector jumped to the head of the energy class as the biggest monthly gainer. A basket of Chinese solar stocks was up some 8.80%, but the solar energy stocks in our portfolio did even better with an average gain of 18.73%. Leading the pack with a 23.60% price rise during the month is our power conversion company which, with outstanding quarterly results that beat Street expectations and a major legal victory in a patent fight, has attracted investors and sent the stock to levels not seen since late 2007.

It is worth mentioning the 20.89% monthly gain achieved by Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY.PK) which, after months of getting pounded by investors, appears to have established a bottom with a rebound that cut our paper losses in half. We still like the company and in fact, they are very well positioned in high growth wind markets. Wind energy will be the featured sector in our upcoming May issue of The Green Investor newsletter, in which we take a fresh look at some exciting developments in areas such as offshore wind.

Best regards, and happy Earth Day on April 22nd,
Andreas Schreyer
Founder and Managing Editor
The Green Investor
 http://www.thegreeninvestor.com/

_____________________________________________________________

Stop guessing which of the numerous green industry stocks will be winners. Get immediate access to all our analysis and Green Portfolio stock recommendations at no risk with our unconditional 30-day money back guarantee.

Become a member of The Green Investor today!

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The Green Investor Update – March 18, 2010

On March 18, 2010, in Market Trends, TGI Updates, by Andreas Schreyer
0

In this update:

  • Markets declare the correction over
  • The Fed and low interest rates
  • Reviving the solar versus wind debate
  • The Green Portfolio update and recommendations

Markets declare the correction over
Conflicting news reports and economic assessments keep on coming and, instead of shining a guiding light on the path ahead, they fill investors with more doubt and confusion. On the other hand, the stock market, as one of the most reliable leading indicators of the economy, has itself answered many of the nagging investor questions by moving up. By clearly breaking above the January 2010 highs on all major indexes, the predominant market uptrend has been confirmed. While there will certainly be corrections down the road, this one is over and done.

What the markets tell us for the months ahead is an economic recovery and not a nasty double dip recession or deflationary collapse as some had feared. It may not make any sense, and the fundamentals may logically point to all the reasons why the economy should not improve, but for now it is happening. The indicator does not say how strong or for how long, but while it lasts we will certainly remain with the trend.

The global picture looks even stronger as many foreign markets experienced only minor slowdowns compared to the strongest recession in the U.S. since the Great Depression. Emerging economies in particular have been largely untouched by the subprime meltdown and their financial systems, with comparatively low levels of deficits and debt, are strong and are driving a worldwide recovery.

In the month since our last update, the S&P 500 index gained 5.90%, and has broken above the January highs in a renewed rally. With a nearly uninterrupted string of 14 consecutive daily gains, it is no surprise to see technical indicators flash overbought signs, but short-term weakness is unlikely to change the renewed uptrend.

While the broad market indexes have generally been on the rise, the most notable aspect of this bull market is how uneven it is. There are large differences between geographic markets, and the same is true between industry sectors. Even within a given market segment, one needs to be extremely selective as the fortunes diverge widely between companies, regardless of how well the sector is doing.

The Fed and low interest rates
At its meeting on Tuesday March 16th, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate at historical lows near zero. Investors rejoiced in particular at reading the Fed had kept the promise “… to keep record-low rates for an extended period” in their statement. With the Fed painting a generally improved picture of the economy, continued record low rates and inflation under control, investors could only reinforce their bullish slant.

For those who want to look for them, there are plenty of precursor signs for higher rates and inflation down the road, such as the Fed hiking the discount rate last month for the first time in seven years, or the U.S. Labor Department reporting that producer prices saw an annual 7.4 percent increase, the biggest gain in more than 26 years. Rising commodity and energy prices due to higher global demand and currency inflation are widely expected to continue, but for now stock investors enjoy a period of stimulation with rates near zero.

Reviving the solar versus wind debate
There have now been a number of analysts coming out with recommendations to sell solar and buy wind. Just last week the biggest of them, JPMorgan Chase, joined the club and in their excitement initiated coverage of Broadwind Energy (BWEN) with an overweight rating only to see its shares plunge over 20% a few days later after announcing poor results. We have had our share of unexpected 20% drops, but the Broadwind example highlights the importance of selecting companies based primarily on their fundamentals, though in this case even the technical indicators look atrocious, which would prevent such obvious wrecks.

Don’t get us wrong, we are very bullish on the wind sector and the gains this sector contributes to our Green Portfolio (see below) are a testimonial to that. Our point is that it is not a debate or a competition between wind and solar, as both will experience phenomenal growth rates over the next few years.

The Green Portfolio update and recommendations
The green sector and the alternative energy market segments we track, as represented by diversified green ETFs such as PBD, trailed the broad stock market during the month to return 1.22%. The Green Portfolio as a whole, with the exception of the two positions we added early March, was down 0.74% for the period.

The weakest sector was solar which was down 9.05% since our last update but, as another example of the contrasts amongst companies of a same sector, the returns of the two dozen solar companies we track varied between +17% and -17% with a fairly good distribution in between.

This month the bright side turned out to be the windy side, with our wind positions leading the portfolio with an average gain of 11.29%. Several companies fought for the honor but the best performer was Woodward Governor Co. (WGOV). This company, not for the first time we might add, led the pack with a gain of 18.14%. Woodward does not make wind turbines but is a leading maker of energy control solutions sold to wind turbine makers and other industries. Another wind play boosting the portfolio is our favorite carbon fiber blades maker which gained 17.89% during the month on no particular news, except that demand in the wind market is strong, especially in China.

*** Green Portfolio recommendation updates ***
(Only active subscribers of The Green Investor newsletter receive
updated recommendations for Green Portfolio positions.)

Our upcoming April newsletter issue includes the must-read quarterly portfolio review which takes a look at the holdings and lists the actions to take. The lead story is about the home energy front, including efficiency and demand management where great investment opportunities are about to be discovered.

Best regards,

Andreas Schreyer
Editor
The Green Investor
 http://www.thegreeninvestor.com/

_____________________________________________________________

Stop guessing which of the numerous green industry stocks will be winners. Get immediate access to all our analysis and Green Portfolio stock recommendations at no risk with our unconditional 30-day money back guarantee.

Become a member of The Green Investor today!

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The Green Investor Update – February 18, 2010

On February 18, 2010, in Market Trends, TGI Updates, by Andreas Schreyer
0

In this update:

  • The stock market takes a breather
  • The China factor
  • Texas two-step
  • A tale of two halves
  • The Green Portfolio update and recommendations

The stock market takes a breather

The long awaited stock market correction has arrived, although it does not yet fully qualify as a correction for all market indexes when using the strict definition of a drop of at least 10%. Poor economic news caused investors to reconsider how fast the recovery will unfold, or if instead a recessionary relapse is in the cards. Disappointing economic news were many, with declining retail sales and consumer sentiment, rising unemployment, and record budget deficits and trade imbalance leading the pack.

Further weaknesses in the world financial system were exposed as debt ridden southern European countries like Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, the so-called PIGS, are nearing critical stage with some threatening to default. Unless financial assistance can rapidly be organized by stronger members of the European Union, the future looks bleak for countries like Greece. With all the fear and uncertainty, investors flocked back to the U.S. dollar as their safe haven of choice, which also helped to knock stocks lower.

In the month since our last update the S&P 500 index dropped 4.81%, having recovered some of its losses over the last few sessions. The technical market picture we reviewed in the February issue of the newsletter highlights the main support areas and what we can expect from this correction. Considering the nearly uninterrupted gains of 70% since March 2009, the market would be justified in correcting a little deeper and a little longer, but it seldom does the logical thing.

The China factor

China, with its double-digit growth last year, and Asia in general, have been the drivers behind the world economic recovery. When the People’s Bank of China, for the second time in less than one month, said it will increase commercial lenders’ reserve requirements, stock markets around the world got caught by surprise and proceeded to break their six month up trends. China is one of the largest economies to begin shifting from stimulus policies to tightening monetary policies, and other central banks are taking notice. By attempting to curb bank lending, the Chinese central bank is hoping to slow an economy in danger of overheating and to delay actions to raise interest rates.

The Chinese stock market took the biggest hit but in fact it had already started correcting back in November 2009. Economists and stock market analysts are now watching the Chinese markets in the hope they will continue to lead and signal the end of the current slump.

Texas two-step

As green investors we know Texas as the state with the largest wind energy capacity in the United States, and if it were a country, it would rank sixth in the world. In 2009, in the midst of the recession, it has added the most, some 2,292 megawatts of new wind power, for a total installed capacity of 9,410 megawatts (Total U.S. installed capacity: 35,159 megawatts).

On the other side of the coin, the most recent data from U.S. Energy Information Administration shows the state of Texas being the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the country, over 60% higher than California which ranks second in emissions but has a population nearly 50% higher than Texas. With such a record, it is no surprise that Texas Governor Rick Perry rejects the scientific evidence linking greenhouse gas emissions and climate change and, just this week, sued the Environmental Protection Agency in federal court to prevent regulation of greenhouse gases. One step forward, two steps back.

While we all celebrate being the best and the biggest, China has doubled its installed wind capacity each of the last five years and is expected to have surpassed the United States with over 10 gigawatts of new capacity installed during 2009. At such growth rates China is projected to reach wind power supremacy in the next couple of years.

In spite of the local state government, progress continues in Texas wind energy as another 600 megawatt West Texas project has moved closer to reality this week. Ironically, the $1.5 billion project for a 36,000 acre wind farm will be supplied with wind turbines from China-based A-Power Energy Generation Systems Ltd. (Nasdaq: APWR).

A tale of two halves

According to Thomson Reuters, of the companies that have reported quarterly earnings so far, 78% have beaten Street expectations. After the recession expectations are understandably very low, but revenue and earnings growth have been the norm and management guidance has been increasing as well.

Despite these positive signs some of the more capital intensive segments of our renewable energy sectors report various delays and push outs affecting the first half of the year. Some of the reasons cited involve longer and tougher financing cycles as well as temporary project postponements. Project pipelines, in utility-scale wind farms for example, are growing nicely but some of the short-term building, orders, and deliveries are being postponed. Several manufacturers in our portfolio indicated that their customers are implementing just-in-time delivery policies which effectively force them to build and hold an inventory. For now the consensus seems to point to a small slow down during the first half of the year followed by a second half which looks stronger than previously forecasted.

The Green Portfolio update and recommendations

Over the last month, the weakest market segments have been China stocks, energy storage and battery technology stocks, closely followed by solar and geothermal stocks. These sectors lost around 13% in the 30-day period. With this combination of market conditions it comes as little surprise that our portfolio gave back some of the paper gains we had accumulated before the correction hit.

In the month since our last Update, as of the close on February 16, 2010, our Green Portfolio lost 9.26% compared to 4.81% for the S&P 500. Since inception last summer the aggregate portfolio return is 14.76% versus 9.20% for the broad market.

Despite some of our holdings announcing very impressive quarterly results and reaffirming their outlook for 2010, the vast majority of our green stocks followed the broad markets down. Surprisingly, the best performance came from our solar photovoltaic high-flyer Trina Solar, Ltd. (TSL) which somehow managed to buck the market trends to gain 4.28% during the period.

*** Green Portfolio recommendation updates ***
(Only active subscribers of The Green Investor newsletter receive
updated recommendations for Green Portfolio positions.)

Our upcoming March newsletter issue should help us stay warm for the rest of the winter by focusing on heat, from the sun and from the earth. These little known alternative energy sectors offer hot investment opportunities we plan to add to the Green Portfolio.

Best regards,

Andreas Schreyer
Editor
The Green Investor
 http://www.thegreeninvestor.com/

_____________________________________________________________

Stop guessing which of the numerous green industry stocks will be winners. Get immediate access to all our analysis and Green Portfolio stock recommendations at no risk with our unconditional 30-day money back guarantee.

Become a member of The Green Investor today!

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The Green Investor Update – January 20, 2010

On January 20, 2010, in Market Trends, TGI Updates, by Andreas Schreyer
0

In this update:

  • Markets begin the new year as they ended the last
  • European solar subsidy slashing rattles investors
  • Detroit offers glimpses of future energy efficiency
  • Government unveils $2.3 billion awards for clean energy jobs
  • Announcing our Q4 complimentary newsletter winner
  • The Green Portfolio update and recommendations

Markets begin the New Year as they ended the last
Thus far in 2010, the stock market has continued to confound those predicting a correction or worse. If anything, the uptrend in broad market indexes has accelerated somewhat over the last month since our December update. The S&P 500 gained 3.70% during the month and observers of the Dow Theory will have taken notice of both the Dow Jones Industrials and Transport indexes making new highs for the current rally, a reconfirmation of the bullish trend.

The news on the economic front has been mostly bad at home with the Treasury Department announcing that the federal budget deficit set a new record high in December, at $91.85 billion, and an up-tick in unemployment with 85,000 jobs lost which surprised most analysts. While investors were waiting for the corporate earnings reporting season to start, they seemed to focus more on fresh evidence from the International Monetary Fund that the world economy is actually recovering faster and stronger than expected, led by China and other developing Asian countries. A report from China showing December exports jumping by 17.7%, after 13 straight months of declines, was bested by South Korea and Taiwan reporting export growth of 46.9% and 33.7%, respectively.

Strong Asian exports also drove record imports of oil and other commodities, which triggered large flows of speculative funds and renewed fears of commodity bubbles and overheating emerging economies.

European solar subsidy slashing rattles investors
Less than a week after France cut their solar subsidies by 24%, the largest solar market in the world, Germany, announced their own version of the cuts which had been anticipated anxiously by the solar industry.

Some level of cuts had been widely anticipated and has been worked into the stock prices of the solar stock segment which has been correcting from its uninterrupted rise last year. As the details are digested by analysts we can expect some continued softness in solar stocks, especially as it dawns on many that the inevitable shakeup of this immature industry will get accelerated by these news. The consolidation is likely to be brutal for some companies but extremely rewarding for the winners.

In our analysis, we anticipate slower growth rates for the solar industry in Europe to be mostly compensated by higher demand from the U.S. and China, but a cooling off period for this overheated sector can only be healthy at this stage. We continue to believe that the low-cost/watt leaders will be the winners, provided they have very solid financials and the ability to scale globally in other growing markets.

For more details on this important topic and what it means for our solar holdings, please read “European Solar Subsidy Slashing: Bad News for Investors?”.

Detroit offers glimpses of future energy efficiency
Instead of the traditional SUVs, trucks and muscle cars, there was a lot of hybrid and electric vehicle hype at the just completed Detroit auto show. All the hoopla could not cover up two conclusions: 1) that true plug-in electric vehicles are likely to remain low-volume luxury items for years to come, and 2) that the invasion of hybrids is rivaled in gas mileage by new generations of small efficient gas powered cars, at much lower prices. What the U.S. auto industry must focus on is inexpensive, small, full electric city cars or risk losing even more market share to their Asian and European competitors.

Government unveils $2.3 billion awards for clean energy jobs
As part of the $787 billion American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, the new awards go to 183 projects in 43 states. These awards provide developers with an investment tax credit of 30% for facilities that manufacture particular types of energy equipment in the United States. The usual suspects, solar and wind received their fair share in addition to projects in smart grid, building efficiency and energy management.

Advantage was given to “shovel-ready” projects that have state and local permits in place and will be commissioned by February 2013, including about one third to be completed this year. The combined federal and private funding is intended to create some 58,000 jobs. Two of our Green Portfolio holdings, First Solar (FSLR) and Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY.PK), were awarded about $70 million between the two of them.

Announcing our Q4 complimentary newsletter winner
We are pleased to announce that Jasper Walshe from the UK is the lucky winner of our most recent drawing for a complimentary 1 year subscription to The Green Investor newsletter, a $499 value.

The Green Portfolio update and recommendations
For the month since our last Update, as of the close on January 19, 2010, our Green Portfolio nearly kept pace with the broad market by gaining 3.57%, despite the pullback in solar stocks. Since inception last summer the aggregate portfolio return is 27.69%, about double the market at large.

This is where the advantages of a diversified portfolio and active management of your portfolio allocations come to light. While we are fully concentrated on the clean and renewable industry, our stock picks span the various sub-sectors with limited exposure to any one of them. As we recommended last month, we took partial profits on our Chinese solar stock and in doing so brought our solar allocation back to about 20% of the portfolio.

The weakness in solar photovoltaic stocks was more than compensated by strength in other areas of the portfolio, namely energy storage and wind.

*** Green Portfolio recommendation updates ***
(Only active subscribers of The Green Investor newsletter receive
updated recommendations for Green Portfolio positions.)

Our upcoming February newsletter issue will focus on a renewable energy sector we have so far left untouched due to timing reasons: bio energy. The biofuel industry, producers of starch-based ethanol from corn and sugarcane in particular, have been in disarray and a major source of losses for investors since they peaked in 2008. We now see strong evidence of new growth areas and we issue exciting new recommendations.

Best regards,

Andreas Schreyer
Editor
The Green Investor
 http://www.thegreeninvestor.com/

_____________________________________________________________

Stop guessing which of the numerous green industry stocks will be winners. Get immediate access to all our analysis and Green Portfolio stock recommendations at no risk with our unconditional 30-day money back guarantee.

Become a member of The Green Investor today!

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The Green Investor Update – December 18, 2009

On December 18, 2009, in Market Trends, TGI Updates, by Andreas Schreyer
0

In this Update:

  • Developments at the UN Climate Conference
  • Utilities announce major alternative energy investments
  • The Fed keeps rate steady near zero
  • The stock market creeps higher
  • The Green Portfolio update and recommendations

Developments at the UN Climate Conference
As predicted, the United Nations Climate Change Conference underway in Copenhagen has been a hot topic on world news networks with all the attendant drama: stories about the giant carbon footprint of the conference itself (mostly caused by the 193 country delegations and world leaders flying to Denmark), developing countries threatening to walk out, hundreds of protestors arrested, and industrialized nations led by the United States offering a $100 billion deal to entice developing nations.

Since the conference has another day to go as of this writing with President Obama in attendance to rally nations to reach a political agreement, we will not draw any hasty conclusions and will leave the full analysis for the upcoming newsletter issue. However, as there is little chance of a detailed binding treaty being signed or even drafted by the end of the conference, we are confident that the immediate outcome will continue to confuse many of those trying to invest on the climate change theme.

Be sure to not miss our upcoming January newsletter issue which features The Green Investor 2010 Outlook. We reveal top renewable energy trends and the strongest green industry sectors for the year ahead.

Become a member of The Green Investor today!

Utilities announce major alternative energy investments
The news from alternative energy markets has been rather healthy over the last month, with a surprising number of new deals and developments being announced. Of particular note were major investment plans revealed by two of the largest utilities: FPL Group and Pacific Gas & Electric Co. Florida’s FPL announced their intent to spend $2 billion on wind energy during 2010. California’s PG&E for its part said it is acquiring a 246 megawatt wind farm from Spanish developer Iberdrola Renovables which, combined with the related transmission investment, will cost the utility some $900 million. There were also reports of a contract to build an 845 megawatt wind farm in Oregon and a 1 gigawatt offshore project in Northern Europe, to name two more. Such announcements and others indicate that investment in renewable energy is picking up despite the broader economic uncertainties and confusion about future emissions regulations.

The Fed keeps rate steady near zero
The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting FOMC committee met earlier this week and kept its key interest rate near 0%. Their statement included mixed views on the economy but, more importantly, repeated their pledge to keep rates exceptionally low for an extended period. While the immediate effect on the stock market was non-existent, low rates tend to be good for the markets.

Any negative effect of a strengthening dollar has so far been mitigated by a continued stream of better-than-expected results and outlooks from companies across various industries.

The stock market creeps higher
In the thirty days since the November update, the stock market has been creeping higher with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes gaining 1.24% and 2.91% respectively. The Dow Industrials and Transportation indexes even set new bull market highs on Monday, which some market timers view as a confirmed buy signal. Still, looking at most charts the market appears to be forming a top, but the longer it does this the more it comes down from an overbought condition which peaked in September.

The Green Portfolio update and recommendations
For the same 30-day period ending with the close on December 16th, our Green Portfolio gained 7.02%. Since August 3rd 2009 the aggregate portfolio return is over 23%, more than double the broad market index advance.

Once again it was a market leading large cap stock which underperformed all other positions in our portfolio, Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY.PK), which dropped 11.37% during the month. Smaller companies have clearly had the edge of late, with several of our small cap holdings gaining around 20% for the month, including one of our early December stock picks which is up 19.17% since then. And, speaking of small cap leadership, we cannot gloss over the near double of our September Chinese photovoltaic stock pick.

*** Green Portfolio recommendation updates ***
Only active subscribers of The Green Investor newsletter receive updated recommendations for Green Portfolio positions.

Stop guessing which of the numerous green industry stocks will be winners. Get immediate access to all our analysis and Green Portfolio stock recommendations at no risk with our unconditional 30-day money back guarantee.

Become a member of The Green Investor today!

Happy Holidays and a Prosperous New Year from all of us at The Green Investor.

Andreas Schreyer
Editor
The Green Investor
 http://www.thegreeninvestor.com/

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