After having introduced the wind energy market and established why it has such a very promising future in “Wind Energy: Now Is the Time to Invest”, we explored ways to invest in this space, from the broad industry index approach of the specialized wind ETFs (FAN) and (PWND) to the targeted method of focusing on top wind turbine manufacturers such as Vestas (VWDRY.PK) outlined in “Finding Opportunities in Wind Energy”. For all practical purposes, this latest article could have been entitled “Investing in Wind Energy, Part 3” and it takes us to mostly unsuspected ways to invest in this vastly untapped source of renewable energy.

When it comes to the selection of wind energy stocks, a look at the value chain beyond turbine manufacturers reveals what are, in our opinion, some of the best ways to play this market. With the turbine manufacturers located approximately in the middle of the value chain, we first look downstream to where the demand is coming from.

Demand for electricity ultimately comes from the consumers, industry and individuals, but the demand for renewable energy mostly originates with the utilities that are forced by regulatory mandates to gradually decrease the percentage of their energy mix coming from fossil fuels. Utilities seldom develop their own wind farms; instead they acquire them from project developers or simply buy the electricity from Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Table 1 below lists some of the key downstream wind market participants: the project developers, Independent Power Producers and utilities.

Table 1: Project Developers, Independent Power Producers, Utilities

Company Name Ticker Symbol Country
A-Power Energy Generation Systems APWR China
E.ON AG EONGY.PK Germany
FPL Group Inc. FPL USA
Iberdrola Renovables IBDRY.PK Spain
Nacel Energy NCEN.OB USA
Naikun Wind Energy Group NKWFF.PK Canada
Otter Tail Corporation OTTR USA
Western Wind Energy Corporation WNDEF.PK Canada
Xcel Energy XEL USA

 

The list is ranked alphabetically and includes some of the larger players in their respective fields as well as some emerging ones. Besides a couple of large U.S. utilities, many of the companies are either foreign or small (or both), but they all can be traded on the over-the-counter markets. The list also varies widely in terms of exposure to wind energy. Some, like A-Power Energy Generation, a small-cap Chinese Project Developer which has positioned itself masterfully as a wind pure-play to Wall Street investors, in fact generates the bulk of its revenue from waste heat cogeneration projects. At the other end of the scale we find companies such as E.ON, an $81 billion German energy behemoth which recently came to the attention of U.S. investors when they opened the world’s largest wind farm in West Texas. It might be a great energy company, but a wind pure-play they are not. To find pure-play wind companies you need to look to much smaller companies such as Nacel Energy, Naikun Wind Energy Group, and Western Wind Energy Corp. which, at $20 to $25 million in market capitalization, are not even ranked as micro-caps.

 

While no publicly traded utility company offers exclusive focus on wind energy, we like the U.S. utilities as they stand to profit from the long-term shift to renewables. With a market cap of about $825M, Otter Tail Corporation is a smaller utility but they have made great strides in incorporating wind in their generation portfolio. Larger utilities we prefer for their forward thinking strategies are FPL Group Inc. which already generates 10% of its electricity from wind, and Xcel Energy, as their NextEra Energy Resources subsidiary owns 25% of current U.S. wind capacity.

The last and maybe the most unrecognized but also the most promising segment of the wind energy supply chain can be found upstream from the turbine manufacturers. It turns out that wind turbine manufacturers are mostly system integrators and they outsource many of the critical components to specialized firms. Table 2 below includes a broad collection of wind components manufacturers which produce blades, bearings, transmissions, generators, towers, power electronics and other key ingredients.

Table 2: Wind Turbine Components Manufacturer

Company Name Ticker Symbol Country
ABB ABB Switzerland
American Superconductor Corp. AMSC USA
Ameron International Corp. AMN USA
Broadwind Energy, Inc. BWEN USA
Hexcel Corp. HXL USA
Trinity Industries Inc. TRN USA
Timken Co. TKR USA
SKF SKFRY.PK Sweden
Toho Tenax TINLY.PK Japan
Toray Industries TRYIY.PK Japan
Xantrex SBGSY.PK France
Zoltek Companies Inc. ZOLT USA

The list is a sampling of publicly traded companies and is by no-means exhaustive. Few of them are wind pure-plays, but this gives them some solid diversification and financial strength. While new wind turbine makers appear by the dozen, the components used in their assembly require very high levels of expertise and specialization. Many of these specialties have significant barriers to entry and the incumbent suppliers are not easily displaced. They promise to grow as fast as the wind energy market grows and their margins tend to be easier to maintain and several have the fundamentals to provide great investment potential.

 

Not all wind turbine components present good opportunities for investment. Towers, for example, are mostly outsourced to an ever growing list of local suppliers. With no real barrier of entry and transportation a permanent confining factor, the market for towers will continue to be very fragmented and local. Ameron International Corp. and Trinity Industries Inc. are two such companies which produce wind towers as one of many other businesses such as rail cars, barges, gas tanks, pipelines, etc. Almost at the other extreme in terms of industry concentration and geographic reach are gears and bearings which are in every wind turbine. There are a few very large global manufacturers like Germany’s SKF and Timken Co. who split the market amongst them, but in our opinion present little attraction as investments because they offer relatively low exposure to the wind market and modest profitability prospects. Much of the same statements apply to generator manufacturers which include large multinationals like ABB and General Electric (GE).

A different breed of wind player is represented by Broadwind Energy, Inc. which is providing a broad array of components and services for the wind industry. They build everything from towers to bearings and gears, and provide heavy haul transportation for the massive parts as well as complete wind farm maintenance and operation services.

With the industry pushing to ever larger, stronger and lighter turbines, carbon fiber blades have emerged as a substitute to fiber glass and other composites. Our list of manufacturers includes Japanese firms Toray Industries and Toho Tenax, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Teijin and the dominant US-based blades companies: Hexcel Corp. and Zoltek Companies, Inc.

On the power electronics front we have a large number of vendors providing anything from inverters, to wind turbine current-leveling and backup power for blade pitch control systems. ABB once more heads the list of the large players competing with specialist companies such as American Superconductor Corp. and Xantrex, which has now been acquired by French giant Schneider Electric.

The wind energy value chain features many more companies than we could list here, and not all we listed necessarily make great investments. There are several dozen companies to investigate among which many outstanding gems can be found by the informed investor.

Disclosure: No positions.

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Last Wednesday I published “Wind Energy: Now Is the Time to Invest” as an introduction to wind energy markets and a review of the reasons for which I believe wind offers a bright future for informed investors.
This year, an estimated 28,000 Megawatts (MW) of capacity are being installed worldwide, and by 2013 the new annual installed capacity will have more than doubled to 58,500 MW. The U.S. Department of Energy also projects dramatic growth with wind energy’s contribution to U.S. electricity supply to increase to 20% by 2030.
Probably the single largest challenge for a U.S.-based individual investor looking to participate in the growth in wind power is that the vast majority of pure play or significant industry players are foreign companies whose stocks are listed on foreign stock exchanges. A perfect illustration of the dilemma can be found in the list of wind turbine manufacturers in Table 1 below. The list represents the worldwide top 10 market share rankings in 2008.
Table 1: Wind Turbines Manufacturers
General Electric (GE) is the only U.S. manufacturer to make the list. GE manufactured over 50% of the wind turbines deployed in the U.S. last year and grew its global tower market share to 18.6%. It is now nipping at the heels of Vestas of Denmark, the world’s largest supplier of wind turbines, at 20% market share. Still, as we pointed out previously, GE makes a rather poor wind investment. For starters, it is nowhere near a wind pure-play and its participation outside the U.S. market is minimal. For example, in what is expected to become the largest wind market this year, China, GE holds only a 2% share and ranks #10.
If you could only buy one wind company it would have to be Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY.PK) as the clear leader in the wind power industry. Vestas has a truly global reach, having installed wind turbines in 63 countries, and is one of very few industry players that can provide complete end-to-end wind power solutions. Vestas’ wind turbines account for nearly one-third of total installed global wind power capacity. Of the top eight country markets, Vestas is the #1 or #2 supplier of wind turbines except in China where they are a strong #4 with 10% market share, behind three Chinese manufacturers.
The list highlights the difficulty for the U.S. investor, as most companies are either private or traded on foreign exchanges. Just like the Vestas stock, a few others are also traded on the pink sheets as over-the-counter (OTC) American depository receipts (ADRs). This means they are not required to make the financial filings in the U.S. that are required for a listing on the major U.S. stock exchanges, and OTC stocks can present other dangers for the casual investor, such as very low volume and high bid/ask spreads which can erode profits.
For anyone only interested in taking a small wind position without investing time and effort, one way to simplify the process is to buy into the wind market as a whole via exchange traded funds (ETFs). Table 2 below lists the two specialized wind funds currently available in the U.S.
Table 2: Wind ETFs
Investing in ETFs presents the benefit of owning an entire basket of stocks in one shot, with the inherent diversification this represents, and the ability to easily participate in hard to reach foreign stocks. We wrote about the advantages of ETF investing in “A Guide to Investing with Green ETFs”. On the downside, investing in a broad static index tends to water down the best performers and results will typically lag a portfolio of handpicked stocks assembled by a knowledgeable and specialized analyst.
The good thing about stock picking is that there are dozens of great companies to choose from, including some long-term keepers from the top 10 wind turbine makers listed above. Even more exiting are the prospects one can find elsewhere in the wind supply chain. Upstream are the suppliers of the many critical components which the turbine makers generally outsource, such as blades, bearings, transmissions, generators, towers, power electronics and other key ingredients. Downstream are the wind farm project developers, independent power producers and utilities. Our next article in the wind series will explore the most promising companies in the extended wind value chain.
Disclosure: No positions
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A Guide to Investing with Green ETFs

On September 15, 2009, in Alternative Energy ETFs, ETFs, Green ETFs, by Andreas Schreyer
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I love building my own green portfolio with handpicked stocks, but for many investors venturing into this exciting market sector for the first time, it makes a lot of sense to establish an initial stake with index exchange traded funds (ETFs).

For investors not very familiar with the advantages of ETFs, we find that they are diversified, transparent, liquid and affordable investment vehicles. They have been all the rage for the last 10 years. From about 30 funds holding some $1 billion in 1999, there are now well over 800 ETFs with combined assets of over $500 billion. The reason they have grown so popular is because they present the individual and institutional investor some compelling advantages.

Convenience and cost
For our money, ETFs are the most practical and economical investment vehicles for buying baskets of stocks, and they are extremely convenient and easy to use. ETFs are index funds listed on a stock exchange. Like some index-based mutual funds, they hold shares in the spectrum of companies or commodities constituting the index. But, unlike mutual funds which are typically priced once per day at the close, ETFs can be bought or sold at any time during the trading day just like any other stock. And for those who like trading this way, ETFs can use the identical techniques used with stocks, such as limit and stop orders, short sales, margin trading, and even options for some. They are not subject to the “frequent trading restrictions” that brokers increasingly enforce on mutual funds and their expense ratios tend to be about half those of mutual funds.

Diversification
Just for clarification of terms, the ETFs listed in this article are by definition non-diversified from an industry sector standpoint, as they narrowly focus on the alternative or clean energy sectors. Some are even more targeted, like the solar and wind categories. The ones we label “diversified” cover the main green market sub-segments including biomass, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar and wind. The global ones are geographically diversified and all invest in a range of company types and sizes, from small caps to large caps. Most important, they are diversified by representing an entire basket of stocks, with any one company only representing a small fraction of the fund’s assets (typically less than 3%).

Transparency and predictability
By definition, with an index ETF, there is no question as to what it invests in or what performance to expect in relation to the index, unlike actively-managed closed-end funds and mutual funds which follow the whim of the fund manager. ETFs are highly regulated and scrutinized, so they’re less prone to all the illegal practices and fraud that have plagued the mutual fund industry. The market risk of an ETF — or how much you can lose — is identical to the index it tracks and the type of underlying assets. Next to commodity ETFs, stock sector funds like the ones we track here are of the more risky category. A note of caution, the stock market as a whole and the energy sectors in particular can be highly volatile.

Liquidity
Contrary to popular belief, since ETF shares can be created and unwound in real time, the liquidity of an ETF is not related to its daily trading volume but rather to the liquidity of the stocks comprised in the index. In addition, ETFs typically have small spreads (generally less than 1%) because market makers, specialists and arbitrageurs all interact and compete to effectively flatten the premiums and discounts to fair market value.

International reach
One of the challenging realities of the green sector is that many leading companies happen to be foreign and exclusively traded on foreign stock exchanges (and thus difficult to trade for individual US investors). Until the advent of global ETFs that is. Fund managers are able to trade on foreign exchanges and give us access to companies otherwise unreachable, all in one compact portfolio. While we are not currency speculators, fundamentals and long-term technical analysis both point to a continuation of the U.S. dollar secular bear market. This means that, all things being equal, an investment in a company traded in a stronger currency, relative to the U.S. dollar, will have compounded gains of the share price gain times the currency appreciation.

For your convenience we have listed all green ETFs in Table 1 below. The ETFs include “Diversified green ETFs”, and specialized sector ETFs (environmental services, solar and wind) which we include for completeness.

Table 1: Green ETFs at a glance

Ticker
ETF Name
Geographic
Focus
Inception
Date
Net Assets
(millions)
Diversified green ETFs
Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF
Global
5/3/2007
$232
iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index Fund
Global
6/24/2008
$73
PowerShares Global Clean Energy Portfolio
Global
6/13/2007
$167
PowerShares Wilder Clean Energy Portfolio
United States
3/3/2005
$764
PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio
United States
10/24/2006
$122
First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge US Liquid Series Fund
United States
2/8/2007
$38
Environmental Services ETFs
Market Vectors Environmental Svcs ETF
United States
10/16/2006
$20
Solar ETFs
Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF
Global
4/15/2008
$193
Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF
Global
4/21/2008
$30
Wind ETFs
First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy Index Fund
Global
6/16/2008
$93
PowerShares Global Wind Energy
Global
7/1/2008
$42

Note that we have intentionally omitted the so-called carbon trading ETFs/ETNs, such as ASO and GRN because they are entirely different animals which do not belong on this list of stock funds. Similarly, we also exclude NLR, PKN and PUW for not fitting our definition of a green ETF, which is to be clean and renewable. And we exclude GWO because it is technically an ETN (exchange traded note) which presents substantially more risks than an ETF, and the fact that it is highly illiquid.

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